Skip to main content

What is a bubble and when will it burst

stock market bubbleReal economics and a lesson on the growth bubble. You will find the answer to how the US economy melted. If you could read patiently and understand, its a great knowledge!
Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.

1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.

2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So,now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.

3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars.
* A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.
* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.

4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted having sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollars from B and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The payment is by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C. As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars. But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.

5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is by borrowing 2 dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.
* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars.
* C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though,the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation.

6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.
7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is only 2 dollars in
circulation, and, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more."
8) A also thought the same way.
9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.
* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.
* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt.Although his net asset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.

10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country ? Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars. Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper. B's net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.

11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.
* A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( he lost everything )
* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars.

End of the story; But few points worth noting.
1.There is however a redistribution of wealth.A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.
2.When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the losers. The asset could shrink or in worst
case, they go bankrupt.
3.If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar
or another piece of land but refrains from taking part in the game, he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up and down like a see saw.
4.If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
5.As in the case of land, the above phenomenon applies to stocks as well.
source:internet.

Comments

  1. Excellent Article - an eye opener

    - Prasad Dudwadkar

    ReplyDelete
  2. thank u mr. prasad. keep visiting

    ReplyDelete
  3. The bubble has burst and we are falling! I read an article about the collapse to come. Its not looking good. Here is the article

    http://www.gotoguy.com/?p=649

    ReplyDelete
  4. yes mr.brandon, we are falling and we are falling very hard

    ReplyDelete
  5. An Alternative to Capitalism?

    The following link, takes you to a "utopian" article, entitled "Home of the Brave?" which I wrote and appeared in the Athenaeum Library of Philosophy:

    http://evans-experientialism.freewebspace.com/steinsvold.htm

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Your Bill Amounts Are Going To Increase From June 1, 2016

Service tax is a tax levied by the government on service providers on certain service transactions, but is actually borne by the customers. It is categorized under Indirect Tax and came into existence under the Finance Act, 1994. Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, in his budget announcements proposed to impose a cess, called the Krishi Kalyan Cess, @ 0.5% on all taxable services. The present rate of service tax will be hiked to 15 per cent from June 1, 2016, from 14.5 per cent. Take a look at what gets expensive:



Phone Bills: Your phone bills are going to go up. So, pay a good 15 per cent now on service tax on phone bills.

Restaurant Bills :If you are dining in a restaurant that already has service tax applicable, you are going to pay more on your eating out. Though 0.5 per cent on a single bill may not mean much, frequent diners may end-up paying a lot during the year.

Travelling: You will have to pay more for air travel, as there is a service tax on tour operators and travel agents.

What is Gold ETF - Gold Bees, Reliance Gold,Kotak Gold

What is Gold Bees or Gold ETF?

Gold ETFs are open-ended mutual fund schemes that will invest the money collected from investors in standard gold bullion (0.995 purity). The investors' holding will be denoted in units, which will be listed on a stock exchange.They provide returns that would closely track the returns from physical gold in the spot market.

An investor can buy and redeem the units either directly from the mutual fund or from the stock exchange.Presently there are many Gold ETFs traded in NSE India. Some of the listed Gold ETFs are GoldBees,Reliance Gold,Kotak Gold,UTI Goldshare



Why choose Gold?
Gold holds its own in any investment evaluation on its strengths as a hedge against inflation, value in the event of political uncertainties and its traditionally negative co-relation with other asset classes such as stocks, fixed income securities and commodities.

The value of goods and services that gold can buy has remained stable unlike currencies that have seen significant…

What is NIFTY BEES - ETF?

NIFTY BEES - is the first ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) in India, which seeks to provide investment returns that closely correspond to the total returns of securities as represented by the S&P CNX Nifty Index. It gives you the most diversified exposure at lowest possible unit size. Approximately value of Nifty bees will be 1/10th value of the prevailing Nifty price.

ETFs are one of the latest financial innovations and any new concept takes time to be known widely. Globally it took more then five to seven years before it could be of any significant size. In India, it was introduced with Rs 21 crore in size , a fraction of the mutual fund industry, it has come far with more than Rs 700 crore in size with six ETFs.




The Nifty BeES also scores over other index funds due to its low tracking error and expense ratio, apart from easier tradeability as it is listed in the NSE. One can also consider doing an SIP in Nifty BeES.

Some of the reasons to invest in Nifty Bees : Investing in Exchange …