Skip to main content

Sensex target and its range


Many FIIs and research institutions continue to give their views and opinions on our markets and their take on India inc's fundamentals.Here is one more such view by a leading institution Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse expects the Sensex to repeatedly touch both extremes of the 13,000-16,000 band in the next six months. At each extreme, are advised to prepare portfolios for a market move to the other. Some of the key negatives that are factored in - soon to stabilise inflation, a peaking monetary tightening cycle, diminished earnings expectations and stable global commodity prices.


In the last eight months, the Sensex has done more of a "yo-yo" than in any full year since 1995 There have been 13 rally and reversal episodes this year so far - the highest in any year since 1995. 1998 and 2000 had 12 such episodes. There have been six rallies and seven reversals so far this year, with the Sensex moving by at least 7%.

Long-term investors should wait for more data before increasing exposure significantly. Expectations of rate declines or current valuation levels are not enough to lift the market. Given local political risks, rising credit quality concerns and dependence on global risk aversion, the market could break down rather than up. Positively, almost all valuation charts have reached their best point since 2006.

Short-term investors should play frequent rallies and reversals by adjusting financial/industrial versus pharmaceuticals/staples. All historically successful quantitative investment strategies have stopped working in this environment. Rather, financials have emerged as one of the top-two outperforming sectors in every rally since February, and one of the top-two underperforming sectors in every reversal. Industrials are not far behind financials as high beta performers in every market half-cycles.

Lastly, valuations would be proven cheap enough only when growth returns back to India Inc.

Popular posts from this blog

NSE Trading Holidays 2024

 Trading holidays for the calendar year 2024. The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) has notified trading holidays for the calendar year 2024 as below: Muhurat Trading:  Timings of Muhurat Trading shall be notified subsequently. 

What are Inverse ETFs?

We all know Mutual Funds, but what are inverse ETFs or Inverse Mutual Funds all about?  They are a special type of funds in which the value goes up when the stock market comes down. They are nothing but "short funds" or ETFs - funds having short positions of the index or stocks. By investing in this fund investors/traders can take advantage of fall in the markets. The main objective of the such products is to provide investors with an alternative during market-decline and in the case where they cannot short sell the index. This type of fund is generally linked to the market index such as the  Nifty 50 Total Returns Inverse Index.  The value of such funds change similar to the traditional funds, on a daily basis, say if the index declines by 1 percent in a day, the fund value increases by 1 percent for that day. How does these funds benefit retail investors or traders? Many investors,rather traders, can make use of this type of fund as a hedge against market conditions.Hedg